1. Scientific Urgency and Planetary Boundaries
The declaration’s urgency stems from a rapidly narrowing window to act. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the 1.5°C threshold could be breached as early as 2025 if current emissions trends persist. As of 2023, global temperatures have already risen approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Ocean systems are absorbing the brunt of this crisis:
Ocean Warming: Over 90 percent of excess heat is stored in the ocean, leading to intensified marine heatwaves, such as the record temperatures observed in the Mediterranean in 2023.
Acidification: Ocean pH has dropped by 0.1 units since the pre-industrial era, threatening calcifying organisms critical to the marine food web.
Deoxygenation: Expanding hypoxic zones, including those in the Gulf of Mexico, are reducing the ocean’s ability to sustain biodiversity.
The SOS Ocean Declaration positions the ocean not merely as a casualty of climate change, but as a global life-support system requiring urgent protection. It echoes the IPCC’s warnings that overshooting 1.5°C may result in irreversible ecosystem collapse.
2. Evaluation of the Five Strategic Pillars
Pillar 1: Strengthening Ocean Governance
Feasibility: Ratifying the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Treaty by 60 states by mid-2025 is ambitious yet plausible, with 89 signatories and EU leadership bolstering momentum.
Alignment: The framework supports SDG 14.5 and reinforces equity through the inclusion of Indigenous and local knowledge systems, in line with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP).
Impact: A BBNJ Conference of Parties (COP) could serve as a foundation for robust governance of the high seas, contingent upon enforceability and financing for developing nations.
Pillar 2: Addressing Pollution and Accelerating Climate Action
Plastic Treaty: A binding global plastics agreement by 2025 is achievable, given active UNEP negotiations. However, industry resistance may challenge ambition levels.
Maritime Decarbonization: The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2023 strategy targets 20–30 percent emissions cuts by 2030. The declaration’s goal of a 55 percent cut will require rapid adoption of green fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen.
Regional Adaptation: Coalitions like the Caribbean Sargassum Alliance are promising, but adaptation financing remains insufficient, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS).
Pillar 3: Marine Conservation and Restoration
Protected Areas: Expansion efforts align with the Kunming-Montreal Framework’s 30x30 goal, but only 3 percent of current marine protected areas are fully protected. Bottom trawling within MPAs continues to undermine conservation.
Deep-Sea Mining: A moratorium has been supported by 21 countries, including France and Chile. However, private sector interest in polymetallic nodules and weak draft regulations from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) pose significant risks.
Pillar 4: Building a Sustainable Blue Economy
Fisheries Reform: While the WTO’s 2022 Fisheries Subsidies Agreement sets a foundation, illegal and unreported fishing still represents up to 20 percent of global catch. Securing access for small-scale fishers remains a legal and policy challenge.
Finance and Innovation: The proposed "Blue Future Alliance" could catalyze capital flows akin to the Global Environment Facility, but scalable private-sector models (such as blue bonds) are still in early development stages.
Pillar 5: Advancing Ocean Science and Knowledge
Data Equity: Over 80 percent of ocean science data originates from high-income countries. Bridging this gap is essential for equitable and informed decision-making.
Cryosphere Research: A proposed Cryospheric Sciences Decade would enhance polar data. However, geopolitical instability, particularly in the Arctic, may impede international collaboration.
3. Geopolitical and Economic Considerations
Developing States: Coastal and island nations such as the Maldives and Fiji face existential threats yet lack sufficient financial and technological support. Operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP28 is crucial.
Economic Transition: Moving from extractive industries (e.g., deep-sea mining) to regenerative economies may disrupt existing sectors but holds the potential to unlock a $3 trillion annual blue economy by 2030, according to WWF.
Global Power Dynamics: China’s distant-water fishing expansion and Russia’s Arctic positioning may complicate consensus-building. Strategic diplomacy will be required to uphold multilateral ocean commitments.
4. Anticipated Outcomes of UNOC3 and the Nice Agreements
UNOC3 presents a rare opportunity to institutionalize a comprehensive ocean governance regime. Key expectations include:
Institutional Mechanisms: The proposed International Panel for Ocean Sustainability (IPOS) could consolidate fragmented governance, echoing the structure and function of the IPCC.
Equity-Centered Multilateralism: Technology transfer, capacity building, and financial equity must be addressed to meet the demands of the G77 and ensure broad participation.
Binding Targets: If legally enforceable targets such as a 55 percent emissions cut in shipping are adopted, UNOC3 could mark a historical inflection point akin to COP21. Conversely, an overreliance on voluntary pledges risks repeating the shortcomings of past agreements like the Aichi Targets.
5. Civil Society and Youth: Agents of Accountability and Innovation
Advocacy Movements: Civil society initiatives, including Ocean Rebellion and Youth4Ocean, play an essential role in holding governments accountable through sustained advocacy and public engagement.
Science-Policy Integration: Innovations such as Mercator Ocean’s digital twin of the ocean are closing the gap between research and policy. Citizen science efforts, including eDNA sampling, are expanding access to data and knowledge.
Youth-Led Solutions: Emerging enterprises such as The Ocean Cleanup and Coral Vita demonstrate that scalable, community-rooted solutions are already in motion. Academic institutions must also embed traditional knowledge systems into scientific curricula to support cultural continuity and local ownership.
Conclusion: Time for Action, Not Rhetoric
The SOS Ocean Declaration represents a comprehensive and timely response to a rapidly escalating crisis. Its effectiveness, however, hinges on three non-negotiable pillars:
Speed: Timely ratification of the BBNJ Treaty and finalization of the global plastics treaty.
Equity: Tangible support for developing nations through finance, technology, and capacity building.
Enforcement: Legally binding agreements must replace voluntary commitments to ensure accountability
Reference:
Oceano Azul Foundation. (2025, March). Manifesto SOS Ocean. https://www.oceanoazulfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Manifesto-SOS-Ocean_digital-EN-3.pdf